Polling and Political Wrap-Up, 3/13/10
Posted by admin | Posted in Politics | Posted on 13-03-2010-05-2008
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On this, the 60th birthday of American actor William H. Macy (who, it seemed, was featured in every movie that I watched between 1997 and 2002), we have a bursting-at-the-seams weekend edition of the Wrap….
THE U.S. SENATE
CO-Sen: New PPP Poll Implies A Toss-Up In Bennet-Norton Duel
Interesting new numbers out late in the week on the competitive Senate race in Colorado. Appointed incumbent Michael Bennet (D) has rebounded a little bit off of his previous lows, and is now with Republican frontrunner Jane Norton, according to new numbers from PPP. The pollsters have Bennet and Norton tied at 43%. Worth noting, however, is that they confirm an interesting Rasmussen finding from last week, in that Democratic primary opponent Andrew Romanoff actually does better, opening up a five-point edge over Norton (44-39). In other Colorado news, Bennet got some good news on Friday, when suburban Denver Congressman offered his endorsement.
LA-Sen: Dueling Polls on the Bayou on the Vitter-Melancon Race
The latest polls out of Louisiana on the Senate battle between Republican Senator David Vitter and his Democratic challenger, Charlie Melancon, show a lead for Vitter. How big a lead, of course, depends on who you ask. If you ask , it is a blowout, with Rasmussen showing Vitter up by twenty-three points (57-34). However, Melancon is releasing some nums of his own, courtesy of some internal numbers from . That poll shows Melancon trailing by just ten points, with Vitter failing to reach 50% of the vote (48-38).
WI-Sen: Right-Wing Poll (No…not THAT Poll) Says Thompson Up Big
A new poll from the right-wing Wisconsin Policy Research Institute is getting positively about the prospects of a Tommy Thompson challenge to incumbent Democratic Senator Russ Feingold. They claim Thompson has a 12-point lead over Feingold (51-39). Of course, Thompson has not declared his candidacy, preferring an almost Giuliani-esque flirtation with the race, instead. If the GOP falls back on their leading declared candidate, millionaire developer Terrence Wall, it doesn’t go so well for the Red Team–Feingold blasts Wall by fifteen (47-32).
THE U.S. HOUSE
CT-04: Himes Draws New Challenger, Who Launches With Polling Data
This was quite obviously a work in progress, given the fact that he was two months ago, but Easton First Selectman Tom Herrmann announced mid-week that he was seeking the GOP Congressional nomination to challenge freshman Democrat Jim Himes. The press release announcing Herrmann’s launch pointed out that he over 0K. One possible dash of cold water–even his own internal polling (done by Wilson Research) had him down nineteen points to Himes (49-30).
IN-09: Sodrel Internal Gives Him Huge Lead in GOP Primary
People anticipating a fifth consecutive showdown between Democrat Rep. Baron Hill and Republican Mike Sodrel are looking like they’ll get their re-re-re-rematch, if a new internal poll by Sodrel is . The poll, conducted for Sodrel by Wilson Research, gives Sodrel a huge lead in the GOP primary, with 46% of the vote. Primary challengers Travis Hankins (19%) and Todd Young (13%) lie well behind. The primary is now less than two months away.
NY-29: GOP Appears To Coalesce Around Reed After Brooks Stands Down
In a move that seems to greatly reduce the likelihood of a competitive GOP primary in the race to succeed the departed Democratic Rep. Eric Massa, Monroe County Executive Maggie Brooks decided for Congress. This seems to ensure that former Corning Mayor Tom Reed, who entered the race long before Massa’s high-profile meltdown, is in the driver’s seat as the GOP nominee. Democrats are still hunting for a candidate, although several names .
PA-12: GOP Picks Their Candidate, Touching Off Major Fireworks
Democrats have to be nothing short of ecstatic with how their week has gone in Southwestern Pennsylvania. After naming their special election nominee (former Murtha staffer Mark Critz), the Dems avoided a potentially bloody primary as former state treasurer Barbara Hafer decided to stand down. Later in the week, the GOP followed suit, and nominated businessman Tim Burns as their standard-bearer, snubbing 2008 nominee William Russell in the process. Russell, to the joy of Dems everywhere, took his defeat a little , charging that the fix was in and confirming that he would continue to run in the primary for November’s general election.
As an excellent piece by Reid Wilson of Hotline On Call points out, this puts Burns in a position. If he tacks too much to the center in order to beat Critz, he could find the fairly well-heeled Russell (who is one of the clients of Base Connect, formerly known as BMW Direct) clipping him in the knees. If he tries to win the primary with Russell, he could compromise his ability to win the special election. It is not an enviable dance, and the political neophyte is going to have to show some pretty impressive campaign chops to pull it off.
THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES
FL-Gov: New PPP Poll Confirms Likely GOP Hold In Sunshine State
It has been a good long while since likely Democratic gubernatorial nominee Alex Sink has been at parity with her likely GOP rival, Bill McCollum. A new poll from PPP indicates that things for Sink might be , rather than better. PPP shows McCollum now up by thirteen points (44-31) over Sink, who was dead-even with McCollum a few months ago.
MN-Gov: Rasmussen Says Gov’s Race Is A Toss-Up
The Ras-a-Palooza cools off a bit at the end of the week, with only a small handful of new polls. One of them is , where the Ras tests the multicandidate fields for Governor with a third-party alternative in the form of Independence Party candidate Tom Horner. Most of the matchups are very close, with Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak (D) and state legislator Marty Seifert (R) performing the best in their respective parties. Horner, for what it is worth, logs between 7-10% of the vote.
NH-Gov: Lynch Still Leads Strongly, Even According to Ras
Democrat John Lynch has been easily re-elected Governor of New Hampshire over the past few cycles, and new numbers from Rasmussen show that his grip on the governor’s mansion in the Granite State does not appear to . Former state HHS Commissioner John Stephen comes the closest for the GOP, and he still trails by fifteen points (50-35). The other prospective GOPers trail by 19 and 26 points.
WI-Gov: Even GOP Pollster Sees Competitive Gov Race
The GOP-friendly poll from WPRI mentioned earlier vis-a-vis Senator Feingold also looked at the open-seat Gov’s race to replace retiring Democratic Governor Jim Doyle. They, not surprisingly, find Republican Scott Walker in the lead, but, given the poll’s sponsor, it is : Walker leads by four (36-32). If former Congressman Mark Neumann is the GOP nominee, the race is all knotted up at 34-34.
