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Interesting:

Here’s what happened: [Florida] Attorney General Bill McCollum was the favorite in the GOP gubernatorial primary, with a moderate record on immigration and strong support from Latino Republicans.  His opponent Rick Scott, a political newcomer and self-funded multi-millionaire, decided to make a name for himself by riding the wave of anti-immigrant sentiment so popular with a segment of the Republican base.  He emphasized his strong support for an Arizona-like immigration law in Florida and painted McCollum as soft on illegal immigration.  Still, once McCollum started attacking Scott as a shady businessman, he regained the lead and was expected to win.

In what proved to be the fatal move of his campaign, McCollum introduced his own version of an Arizona-type law less than two weeks before the primary.  McCollum called on the Florida state legislature to enact it in September and bragged that the bill was tougher than Arizona’s.

Turns out, McCollum’s strategy of trying to outflank Scott on immigrant bashing backfired.  McCollum rapidly lost support from Latino leaders, and faced a backlash in the press.  On Tuesday, many Latinos in Miami-Dade County stayed home.  Turnout in what was expected to be a McCollum stronghold was less than 17%, while statewide turnout was 21%.  Scott raced over the finish line and pulled off the come-from-behind upset.

Remember, Florida has a large Latino Republican base, particularly the Cuban community in South Florida (reinforced by the smaller Nicaraguan crowd). The entire GOP has been propped up by these “anti-communist” Republican Latinos, both in terms of votes and in cash. The Cuban-American community is loaded, and they spend freely on politics.

But with the GOP turning hard-Right on immigration, these numbers spell serious trouble for Florida Republicans. Their base is demanding Arizona-style anti-immigrant hate, and the blowback in the South Florida Latino community could have serious electoral repercussions.

With Latinos comprising over 15 percent of the state’s voting population in 2008, as well as almost 50 percent of the recent population growth, it is dangerous and even fatal to underestimate the power of this growing voting bloc.  According to a NALEO’s recent poll 55% of Florida Latinos said that the current immigration debate made them more likely to vote in the November 2010 elections and 60% of Florida Latinos said they were certain, very likely, or somewhat likely to vote against a political party or candidate who took a disagreeable position on immigration, even if they agreed with that candidate/party on most other issues.

Good news for Democrats!

Except, the Latino community is furious about the lack of progress on comprehensive immigration reform, or even the Dream Act (for students of undocumented parents), and Spanish-language media has been turning against Obama with a vengeance (and there’s no one from the professional left in that world).

Republicans are making headway with Latinos by talking about Obama’s broken promises. And while they may conveniently omit their role in blocking any such reform, fact is that Democrats never made a serious push for reform. Reid may whine about 60 votes, but even holding a vote and going down in defeat would’ve shown Latinos which party was fighting for them, and which one is standing in their way. Instead, Democrats are stuck with the worst of all worlds — lack of progress, and the blame for the lack of progress.

For Latinos, a demographic that is already prone to staying home on election day, a sense of political helplessness is a recipe for lower turnout. And the lower the Latino turnout, the more seats we’ll lose in November.

House investigators have recommended that three lawmakers be further investigated to determine whether political contributions were improperly linked to votes on a huge financial overhaul bill.

Closing a divisive chapter of American history, President Barack Obama marked the end of the nation’s combat mission in Iraq on Tuesday without declaring victory, winding down the U.S. role in a war he considered a terrible mistake.

Most of you have probably seen this by now:

That 10-point GOP lead is the widest in Gallup’s polling history, and suggest serious Democratic losses in November. If the elections were today, we’d lose the House, with seats to spare. The Senate is seriously in play. There’s no hyperbole here — the Dems are headed toward crushing defeats this November.

And it’s worse than that even:

Now, an enthusiastic vote counts just as much as an enthusiastic one, but it’s also harder to get that unenthused voter to the polls. The Democratic turnout machine, which has made great strides in recent years, is going to have its work cut out just getting base voters out, and even then we’d still come up short. Yeah, it’s bleak. And the White House can whine all it wants about the “professional left”, fact is that this goes far beyond some blog or cable news host. So what to do?

Digby:

I don’t know about you, but it seems to me that if you want to get people enthusiastic you might want to pick a big old fight right about now instead of trying desperately to avoid controversy (also known as “kerfuffles”.) In case the Democrats don’t realize it, Republicans and right leaning Independents aren’t going to vote for them no matter what they do. Even if they open up those FEMA camps and start rounding up every Muslim and Mexican looking person they see, it won’t work. Neither will rolling over and playing dead.

This goes beyond “doing something”, and into the realm of actually doing something to excite the base. The administration has done virtually nothing designed to reward its partisans. Half measures and compromises with Republicans who voted against final legislation certainly doesn’t count. Failing to follow through on promises on everything from comprehensive immigration reform to DADT doesn’t help. Fighting to open up more shoreline to drilling doesn’t help. Lilly Ledbetter was a step forward, then the Stupak Amendment was two steps back.

In fact, from the beginning, this administration and Democratic congress seemed more concerned with “bipartisanship” for the sake of bipartisanship, than they were in passing the best possible legislation possible. Harry Reid came off the gate in 2008 by immediately whining about “60 votes” — something I don’t recall ever hearing from Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist. The Obama Administration indulged Max Baucus’ “negotiations” with Republicans Mike Enzi and company, even as those Republicans publicly bragged that their entire strategy was to delay and obstruct.

People may whine about cable hosts and bloggers who point out these failings, and try to shoot the messenger. But we don’t have a noise machine like Fox’s. Rush Limbaugh reaches a third of the conservative base on a weekly base. There is nothing even remotely close to that on the Left. Limbaugh’s weekly audience is 20 million. Keith Olbermann’s is maybe a tenth of that.

No, this mess is the administration’s making, with a healthy assist from Harry Reid’s Senate. The shame is that Nancy Pelosi’s House, which did its job, will bear the brunt of the voter backlash. But the White House won’t be spared.

Paul Krugman:

So what will happen if, as expected, Republicans win control of the House? We already know part of the answer: Politico reports that they’re gearing up for a repeat performance of the 1990s, with a “wave of committee investigations” — several of them over supposed scandals that we already know are completely phony. We can expect the G.O.P. to play chicken over the federal budget, too; I’d put even odds on a 1995-type government shutdown sometime over the next couple of years.

It will be an ugly scene, and it will be dangerous, too. The 1990s were a time of peace and prosperity; this is a time of neither. In particular, we’re still suffering the after-effects of the worst economic crisis since the 1930s, and we can’t afford to have a federal government paralyzed by an opposition with no interest in helping the president govern. But that’s what we’re likely to get.

If I were President Obama, I’d be doing all I could to head off this prospect, offering some major new initiatives on the economic front in particular, if only to shake up the political dynamic. But my guess is that the president will continue to play it safe, all the way into catastrophe.

It’s a slow motion car wreck in the works, and the best the White House and its allies can do is complain that we didn’t clap loudly enough.

Politico – Couples can pay ,400 per couple for a VIP photo opportunity, according to the invitation.

Time.com – With President Obama’s Iraq speech set for Tuesday night, Iraq’s fate is far from settled, Afghanistan is going badly and Democrats would prefer that Obama show he’s focused on a sagging economy

• Great CPR campaign from the American Heart Association.
• PA-Sen: Joe Sestak needs to do something to shake up his campaign.
  

  Republican candidate Pat Toomey has a 10-point lead over his Democratic rival in the race for a Senate seat in the key swing state of Pennsylvania where worries about the economy dominate, a Reuters/Ipsos poll showed on Tuesday

  In the latest sign that President Barack Obama’s Democrats could struggle at the November 2 midterm vote, 47 percent of likely voters said they would back Toomey and 37 percent said they favored Democrat Joe Sestak.

  And yes, I know Sestak came back from behind in the primary. But he had a dragon slayer with the ad of Specter endorsing Sarah Palin. Does he have something that potent for the general election?

• The Koch brothers aren’t just spending millions to defeat Democrats and progressive legislation, but the hypocrites are also first in line to receive government handouts.
• KY-Sen: I like Jack Conway’s first ad of the general election:

  Help keep the ad on the air by contributing to his campaign.

• Newt gets slapped in the face by Tom Coburn:
  

  Conservative Republican Sen. Tom Coburn of Oklahoma bluntly stated his concern about the twice-divorced, thrice-married Gingrich during a Friday town hall.

  “He’s the last person I’d vote for for president of the United States,” Coburn said, per the Tulsa World. “His life indicates he does not have a commitment to the character traits necessary to be a great president.”

  Coburn said that Gingrich’s personal history indicates that he “doesn’t know anything about commitment to marriage.”

• This shit pisses me off:
  

  A new report on who supplies — and who spends — California’s public dollars shows an interesting disparity between the givers and the takers:

  Counties that provide most of the state’s revenue streams like income and sales taxes reliably elect Democrats, who traditionally want to take more of your money. And counties whose Republican representatives argue most vociferously for social services cuts draw, per capita, the most state aid [...]

  [R]ural residents would be most affected by the drastic cuts being considered to health and human services programs. The report shows the Bay Area’s blue counties are, in many ways, a revenue lifeline for the rural Republican red.

  “Is there a disconnect here between political sentiments in rural areas and the demand or desire or need for public expenditures? I think there is,” said Al Sokolow, a retired professor at UC Davis. “Leaders in these rural areas, while wanting more from the state, are also less reluctant to give in on the tax front.”

  See also Alaska.

• The Onion really knows its Republicans.
  

  ALINA, KS—Local man Scott Gentries told reporters Wednesday that his deliberately limited grasp of Islamic history and culture was still more than sufficient to shape his views of the entire Muslim world.

  Gentries, 48, said he had absolutely no interest in exposing himself to further knowledge of Islamic civilization or putting his sweeping opinions into a broader context of any kind, and confirmed he was “perfectly happy” to make a handful of emotionally charged words the basis of his mistrust toward all members of the world’s second-largest religion.

  “I learned all that really matters about the Muslim faith on 9/11,” Gentries said in reference to the terrorist attacks on the United States undertaken by 19 of Islam’s approximately 1.6 billion practitioners. “What more do I need to know to stigmatize Muslims everywhere as inherently violent radicals?”

  “And now they want to build a mosque at Ground Zero,” continued Gentries, eliminating any distinction between the 9/11 hijackers and Muslims in general. “No, I won’t examine the accuracy of that statement, but yes, I will allow myself to be outraged by it and use it as evidence of these people’s universal callousness toward Americans who lost loved ones when the Twin Towers fell.”

  “Even though I am not one of those people,” he added.

  When told that the proposed “Ground Zero mosque” is actually a community center two blocks north of the site that would include, in addition to a public prayer space, a 500-seat auditorium, a restaurant, and athletic facilities, Gentries shook his head and said, “I know all I’m going to let myself know.”

• If we had Washington as concerned with our problems TODAY, as opposed to Social Security’s projected problems in 27 years, we wouldn’t be facing an electoral drubbing this November.
• A preview of coming attractions if GOP takes either chamber of Congress (at least one is now likely):
  

  Republican pollster Dick Morris told conservative political activists that newly elected Republicans should shut down the government next year. Morris said the party must elect lawmakers who will stand up and say “No” to President Obama’s requests for more government spending and predicted a repeat of how Republicans forced a shutdown under President Clinton after they won control of Congress.

  “There’s going to be a government shutdown, just like in ‘95 and ‘96 but we’re going to win it this time and I’ll be fightin’ on your side,” Morris said at the Americans for Prosperity Foundation Conference on Friday in Washington.

Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty directed state agencies on Tuesday to decline all discretionary participation in federal healthcare reform, throwing up roadblocks to President Barack Obama’s goal of providing health insurance to all Americans.

You gotta say this for Joe Miller, he knows a fundraising opportunity when he sees one, and he sees one in the absentee ballot counting in the Alaska primary.

Joe Miller’s lawyers are asking for state troopers to be stationed at Alaska elections offices, charging that there are serious shenanigans afoot involving improper shredding and that Sen. Lisa Murkowski’s observers of the ballot-counting brought an illegal iPhone into the room.

Those are just two allegations in a new letter  from Miller’s attorneys to Lt. Gov. Craig Campbell and state elections officials that detail serious concerns and will make the sustained vote counting all the more interesting.

The Tea Party Express group, which spent more than 0,000 in a last-minute effort to put Miller over the top in a primary to unseat Murkowski, is emailing supporters a copy of the letter with the ominous subject line: “Irregularities Arise in Alaska Vote Count – URGENT!”

….

“The NRSC, the Murkowski campaign and the Republican political establishment in Alaska are doing everything they can to steal Joe Miller’s apparent victory away from him. We must fight back,” they wrote. “We went through this with Al Franken in Minnesota when the Democrat Party pulled this stunt – we can’t stand for it in Alaska with the Republican Party establishment.”

They certainly know the crowd they’re appealing to, and it’s not run of the mill Republicans. It’s pure paranoia and persecution in the teabagger crowd, and Miller knows just the buttons to push. And it’s also pretty hyped up, considering the one NRSC guy who flew out to Alaska from DC was only there for three days and left quickly in order “to ensure that the NRSC’s actions would not be misinterpreted.”

This is the most blatant attempt by the Tea Party to declare all-out war with the Republican Party. Unity has been lacking in the Republican party post-primary from Kentucky to Washington State, but until now the NRSC hasn’t been the declared enemy. Which makes one wonder how committed the NRSC will remain in this election should Miller prevail in the primary. Who knows how far he’ll escalate this if it actually gets to a recount.

Update: Further evidence that this is primarily about money, from Roll Call [sub req]:

Joe Miller is working to raise 0,000 as Alaska begins counting thousands of additional ballots in the Republican Senate primary. Miller’s campaign told supporters in an e-mail Tuesday that it needs the money for the “fight between the establishment and the conservative grassroots.”

“Unfortunately, Joe Miller and his homegrown base of conservative Alaskans are facing legal battles with well-funded special interests committed to maintaining the status quo in Washington,” the solicitation reads. “With your support, Joe can continue his momentum; stave off the inevitable lawsuits, and cross the finish line with another victory for the conservative movement.”

The Congressional Black Caucus Foundation will investigate its scholarship program following the admission by a House member that she wrongly steered scholarships to her relatives and the children of a staff member, the longtime attorney for the tax-exempt group said Tuesday.